Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the northern High
Plains on Sunday eastward-southeastward into the lower Great Lakes
by Tuesday. An upper-level trough, in the wake of the ridge, is
forecast to move eastward across the northwestern and north-central
U.S. Isolated thunderstorm development appears likely in parts of
the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley during the
afternoon and evening on Sunday and Monday. The moist sector is
forecast to shift eastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley on
Tuesday, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Although a
localized severe threat may develop each afternoon, warm air aloft
and capping should keep convective development isolated. Any cells
that can form in spite of these limiting factors, could be
associated with a marginal wind-damage and hail threat.
...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8...
The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. Thunderstorm development is
expected by afternoon ahead of the trough in the central and
northern Appalachians. Although a severe threat may develop in areas
that destabilize the most, deep-layer shear is only forecast to be
in the 25 to 35 knot range across much of the Northeast. For this
reason, any wind-damage threat may remain isolated Wednesday
afternoon. For Thursday, the models keep the upper-level trough in
the eastern U.S., while west-northwesterly mid-level flow is
maintained in the north-central U.S. Isolated strong storms would be
possible along an axis of instability in the upper Mississippi
Valley Thursday afternoon. However, the wide spread among solutions
suggests uncertainty is high late in the Day 4 to 8 period.
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