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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, July 14, 2022

SPC Jul 14, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the northern High Plains on Sunday eastward-southeastward into the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday. An upper-level trough, in the wake of the ridge, is forecast to move eastward across the northwestern and north-central U.S. Isolated thunderstorm development appears likely in parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley during the afternoon and evening on Sunday and Monday. The moist sector is forecast to shift eastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Although a localized severe threat may develop each afternoon, warm air aloft and capping should keep convective development isolated. Any cells that can form in spite of these limiting factors, could be associated with a marginal wind-damage and hail threat. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. Thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon ahead of the trough in the central and northern Appalachians. Although a severe threat may develop in areas that destabilize the most, deep-layer shear is only forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range across much of the Northeast. For this reason, any wind-damage threat may remain isolated Wednesday afternoon. For Thursday, the models keep the upper-level trough in the eastern U.S., while west-northwesterly mid-level flow is maintained in the north-central U.S. Isolated strong storms would be possible along an axis of instability in the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon. However, the wide spread among solutions suggests uncertainty is high late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)