Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the northern
Rockies into the upper Mississippi Valley from Saturday to Monday.
During this time, a corridor of moisture and instability is forecast
to be located in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Convective
development, associated with an isolated severe threat, will be
possible each day along parts of the instability corridor. However,
warm temperatures aloft and capping will likely keep thunderstorm
coverage isolated across the north-central U.S. A greater potential
for thunderstorms could develop in areas where mesoscale conditions
become favorable. But this should be dependent on several factors,
one being the position of outflow boundaries. For this reason,
predictability is low from the weekend into the early week.
...Tuesday/Day 7 to Wednesday/Day 8...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern
Plains on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates
eastward through the base of the trough. There is some agreement
among the solutions that an axis of moderate instability will be
across the upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon. Convection
that develops in the greater instability could have a severe threat.
But capping could be a problem concerning convective coverage. The
trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Great Lakes on
Wednesday. Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough
from parts of the central Great Lakes southwestward into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Capping should again be a problem, likely
keeping convection isolated during the late afternoon and evening.
Still, a threat for wind damage and hail could occur in areas that
become locally favorable.
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