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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, July 13, 2022

SPC Jul 13, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the northern Rockies into the upper Mississippi Valley from Saturday to Monday. During this time, a corridor of moisture and instability is forecast to be located in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Convective development, associated with an isolated severe threat, will be possible each day along parts of the instability corridor. However, warm temperatures aloft and capping will likely keep thunderstorm coverage isolated across the north-central U.S. A greater potential for thunderstorms could develop in areas where mesoscale conditions become favorable. But this should be dependent on several factors, one being the position of outflow boundaries. For this reason, predictability is low from the weekend into the early week. ...Tuesday/Day 7 to Wednesday/Day 8... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward through the base of the trough. There is some agreement among the solutions that an axis of moderate instability will be across the upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon. Convection that develops in the greater instability could have a severe threat. But capping could be a problem concerning convective coverage. The trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Great Lakes on Wednesday. Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough from parts of the central Great Lakes southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Capping should again be a problem, likely keeping convection isolated during the late afternoon and evening. Still, a threat for wind damage and hail could occur in areas that become locally favorable. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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