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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, June 30, 2022

SPC Jun 30, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates little change to the amplified split flow across the eastern Pacific into western North America through early next week. Thereafter, into the middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that the blocking high over the Canadian Yukon and Northwest Territories may begin to weaken. As it does, the persistent mid-level troughing near and offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast may lose amplitude, with the most prominent embedded perturbation (likely the remnants of a mid-level low) forecast to accelerate northeastward just offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast by early Friday. This probably will be accompanied by substantive amplification of downstream mid-level ridging across and just east of the northern U.S. and Canadian Rockies, while mid-level subtropical ridging also becomes more prominent across the Colorado Plateau and southern Rockies vicinity. Prior to the pattern changes, it still appears that an increase of boundary-layer moisture through much of the Missouri Valley, beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Rockies, may once again contribute to a broad area of moderate to strong potential instability. And at least one significant perturbation emanating from the Pacific coast troughing, before migrating around the northern periphery of the downstream ridging, may contribute to a corridor of increasing severe weather potential across the northern Intermountain region and northern Rockies, through areas near/northeast of the middle into lower Missouri Valley. This is where shear on the southern fringe of the westerlies, coupled with the increasing instability, will promote a conditional risk for the evolution of longer-lived organized convective systems with the potential to produce strong surface gusts. However, the predictability of these sub-synoptic features is low at this extended range. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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