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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, June 30, 2022

SPC Jun 30, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible today from parts of Kansas to Upper Michigan. ...20z Update... The only change to the outlook with the 20z update is to add a 15 percent hail area within the ongoing Slight risk area across Upper MI into northern WI. Any semi-discrete cells that develop ahead of the cold front in this area will have large hail potential for at least a couple of hours, in addition to a damaging wind risk. The remainder of the outlook remains unchanged. See the previous discussion below for more forecast details. ..Leitman.. 06/30/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022/ ...Upper MI/WI/MN/IA... Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from central MN into northwest KS. A moderately moist and potentially unstable air mass is present ahead of the front, although several areas of clouds are limiting heating. Most CAM solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along/ahead of the front over northern WI/Upper MI by mid-afternoon, in an environment of steep lapse rates and strong westerly flow aloft. A few of these cells will likely become intense, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail for a few hours. There is considerable uncertainty how far southwest the risk of strong storms will extend into MN/IA due to weakening large scale forcing and weaker shear profiles. Nevertheless, will maintain ongoing SLGT area. ...CO/KS/NE... Ample mid-level moisture is present today over CO, along the southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft. Strong heating across the plains of eastern CO into western KS/NE will lead to hot surface temperatures and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect this region later today. Present indications are that meager boundary-layer moisture will limit the intensity of updrafts or precipitation cores, but dry-microbursts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts will be a potential risk. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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