SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022
Valid 302000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN IOWA
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
are possible today from parts of Kansas to Upper Michigan.
...20z Update...
The only change to the outlook with the 20z update is to add a 15
percent hail area within the ongoing Slight risk area across Upper
MI into northern WI. Any semi-discrete cells that develop ahead of
the cold front in this area will have large hail potential for at
least a couple of hours, in addition to a damaging wind risk.
The remainder of the outlook remains unchanged. See the previous
discussion below for more forecast details.
..Leitman.. 06/30/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022/
...Upper MI/WI/MN/IA...
Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from
central MN into northwest KS. A moderately moist and potentially
unstable air mass is present ahead of the front, although several
areas of clouds are limiting heating. Most CAM solutions indicate
scattered thunderstorms will form along/ahead of the front over
northern WI/Upper MI by mid-afternoon, in an environment of steep
lapse rates and strong westerly flow aloft. A few of these cells
will likely become intense, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and
hail for a few hours. There is considerable uncertainty how far
southwest the risk of strong storms will extend into MN/IA due to
weakening large scale forcing and weaker shear profiles.
Nevertheless, will maintain ongoing SLGT area.
...CO/KS/NE...
Ample mid-level moisture is present today over CO, along the
southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft. Strong heating
across the plains of eastern CO into western KS/NE will lead to hot
surface temperatures and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles.
Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to
affect this region later today. Present indications are that meager
boundary-layer moisture will limit the intensity of updrafts or
precipitation cores, but dry-microbursts capable of isolated
damaging wind gusts will be a potential risk.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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