SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms may develop over portions of the central
Plains into western Missouri and northwest Arkansas on Sunday.
...Central Plains into western MO/AR...
The large-scale upper pattern will become quasi-zonal across the
western U.S. into the Plains on Day 3/Sunday. However, most guidance
depicts a weak midlevel shortwave impulse migrating across the
central/southern Plains to the Ozarks vicinity. Southerly low-level
flow will maintain a very moist arimass from the Sabine Valley into
KS/MO beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will allow for
moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the shortwave impulse.
Deep-layer flow will remain rather weak, but southerly low-level
flow becoming northwesterly in the mid/upper levels will support
25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Given expected weak large-scale
ascent, some uncertainty exists regarding the degree of convective
coverage and also where storms may develop. However, deterministic,
ensemble and machine learning guidance suggest the best chance for
storm clusters or an MCS developing will be across eastern portions
of KS/OK, spreading east/southeast into portions of the Ozarks.
Locally strong gusts and hail will be the most likely hazard with
this activity from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of southern NE and western KS near the intersection of a surface
dryline and a quasi-stationary west to east oriented surface
boundary over NE. Forecast soundings indicated a deeply mixed
boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud layer profiles amid steep
lapse rates and moderate instability. These storms could produce
strong outflow winds and hail.
..Leitman.. 06/03/2022
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