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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, June 3, 2022

SPC Jun 3, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms may develop over portions of the central Plains into western Missouri and northwest Arkansas on Sunday. ...Central Plains into western MO/AR... The large-scale upper pattern will become quasi-zonal across the western U.S. into the Plains on Day 3/Sunday. However, most guidance depicts a weak midlevel shortwave impulse migrating across the central/southern Plains to the Ozarks vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a very moist arimass from the Sabine Valley into KS/MO beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will allow for moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the shortwave impulse. Deep-layer flow will remain rather weak, but southerly low-level flow becoming northwesterly in the mid/upper levels will support 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Given expected weak large-scale ascent, some uncertainty exists regarding the degree of convective coverage and also where storms may develop. However, deterministic, ensemble and machine learning guidance suggest the best chance for storm clusters or an MCS developing will be across eastern portions of KS/OK, spreading east/southeast into portions of the Ozarks. Locally strong gusts and hail will be the most likely hazard with this activity from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern NE and western KS near the intersection of a surface dryline and a quasi-stationary west to east oriented surface boundary over NE. Forecast soundings indicated a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud layer profiles amid steep lapse rates and moderate instability. These storms could produce strong outflow winds and hail. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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