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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, June 2, 2022

SPC Jun 2, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds remain possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States until around 8 PM EDT. ...20Z Update... The primary outlook change is to trim the Marginal Risk out of parts of AR/MS/AL, in the wake of ongoing convection and extensive outflow. Scattered damaging wind gusts remain possible into the evening with ongoing storms across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across parts of NM into west TX late this afternoon into the evening. See the previous discussion below for more details, and MCD 1014 and 1015 for information regarding the short-term severe threat across the Ark-La-Miss region and parts of NC/VA. ..Dean.. 06/02/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022/ ...Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... To the south/east of a front across the middle/upper Ohio Valley and Pennsylvania, ample insolation is occurring per visible satellite across southern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and West Virginia/Virginia/Maryland including the Delmarva. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F will yield around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE even with relatively warm mid-level temperatures and poor mid-level lapse rates (near 5C/km per 12z KIAD and KWAL observed soundings). Moist/unstable air mass aside, thunderstorm development and intensification this afternoon will be aided by an upstream MCV and surface trough across the region in addition to orographic influences. A moderately strong belt of winds aloft, particularly across northern Virginia/Delmarva and northward, will support some updraft rotation along with semi-organized small clusters. Isolated damaging winds/tree damage should be the most common hazard, although some severe hail is also possible. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... A lingering slow-moving MCS/MCV will likely persist east-southeastward toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity. Related forcing for ascent and differential heating will influence downstream thunderstorm development this afternoon with a moist/unstable air mass with MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest updrafts/downdrafts through early/mid-evening. ...New Mexico and far southeast Colorado/far West Texas... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from central New Mexico into far southeast Colorado this afternoon along the western periphery of the southern Great Plains moisture plume that has spread across the Upper Rio Grande Valley. Modest deep-layer shear, but steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support a few cells capable of isolated severe hail and wind. Convection will largely weaken as it spreads east into the adjacent high plains where low-level stratus will likely persist through much of today and maintain MLCIN. There is some potential for a loosely organized cluster to emanate east-southeast tonight across southeast New Mexico towards parts of west Texas within the ribbon of greater elevated buoyancy in the Permian Basin. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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