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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, June 23, 2022

SPC Jun 23, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave trough will extend from western Ontario southwestward into the central Plains early D4/Sunday. This shortwave is forecast to progress eastward across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes/Northeast from D4/Sunday and D6/Tuesday. A cold front associated with this system will likely extend from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains early D4/Sunday. Western portion of this front will stall on D4/Sunday, but the central and eastward portions are expected to continue eastward/southeastward across the OH and TN Valley and Northeast. Thunderstorms are possible along this front as it moves eastward/southeastward, but the front will be displaced ahead of the stronger shear, limiting the large-scale severe potential. Westerly flow will remain in the vicinity of the international border through the middle of next week, to the north of the persistent southern CONUS upper ridge. Several shortwaves may progress through this flow, including one that could move into the Upper Midwest on D6/Tuesday, promoting thunderstorm development. The magnitude of buoyancy ahead of this system is uncertain, limiting the predictability of the severe potential. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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