SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and
evening across portions of the central Plains and middle Mississippi
Valley.
...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the
Saskatchewan/Manitoba border southward into the central High Plains
early Saturday morning. This shortwave trough is expected to
progress eastward throughout the day, ending the period extending
from western Ontario southwestward into the Mid MO Valley. A surface
low associated with this shortwave will move just ahead of it,
progressing across northern Ontario throughout the day. At the same
time, an attendant cold front will sweep southeastward across the
Upper/Mid MS Valley and central Plains.
Thunderstorms may be ongoing near this front early Saturday morning
across the Upper MS Valley. Additional thunderstorms are possible
along this front during the afternoon and evening, particularly from
northeast KS into eastern IA/northern IL where more favorable
thermodynamic conditions will exist. Vertical shear will be modest
in the vicinity of the front, but the buoyancy should still be
strong enough from northeast KS into eastern IA/northern IL for a
few robust updrafts capable of hail and/damaging wind gusts.
Numerous thunderstorms are also possible across NM and CO as
moderate mid-level moisture persist within the western periphery of
an upper ridge centered over the Mid-South. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are also possible from the central Gulf Coast into FL,
as the air mass diurnally destabilizes.
..Mosier.. 06/23/2022
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