SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio
Valley and Lower Great Lakes region on Wednesday afternoon and
evening.
...Synopsis...
Expansive upper ridging covering much of the southern CONUS is
forecast to be centered over the southern Plains Wednesday morning.
A shortwave trough will likely be progressing through the northern
periphery of this ridge, beginning the day over western Ontario and
the Upper Great Lakes before continuing eastward into western Quebec
and the Lower Great Lakes.
...OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes...
Progression of this shortwave will push an attendant cold front
southeastward across the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes region
during the afternoon and evening. A warm and moist air mass will
likely be in place ahead of this cold front, with dewpoints in the
upper 60s/low 70s and temperatures reaching the 90s during the late
afternoon. These thermodynamic conditions will support a very
unstable air mass, and the potential for thunderstorms as the front
moves through. Vertical shear throughout much of the region will be
weak, limiting storm organization, but the robust buoyancy will
still support robust updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts
and/hail. Disorganized storm mode is currently expected to limit the
coverage and persistence of any severe storms, with only isolated
coverage currently anticipated.
..Mosier.. 06/20/2022
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