SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas-Oklahoma
border northward into the central Great Plains on Saturday. A
marginal risk for a tornado may develop for the Florida Keys.
...Central and southern Great Plains...
A cluster of thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of OK early
Saturday morning but model guidance varies considerably regarding
this scenario. In the wake of this potential early-day activity,
models show a weak upper trough moving eastward across the central
and southern High Plains during the period. Southerly low-level
flow over the central-southern Great Plains to the west of surface
high pressure over the OH Valley, will slowly advect moisture
northward. Model guidance indicates surface dewpoints will range
from the upper 60s-lower 70s over parts of OK to the mid 50s in
southwest NE. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates and strong heating will
contribute to a moderately to very unstable airmass by late
afternoon. Residual outflow boundaries and a dryline may serve to
focus storm initiation. Thunderstorm coverage is a bit uncertain
given the weakly forced scenario and relatively high model
variability in storm coverage/placement. Nonetheless, the magnitude
of buoyancy/shear could aid in locally severe thunderstorms capable
of a hail/wind risk beginning during the afternoon and persisting
into the evening before diminishing.
...South FL and Keys...
Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the development of a
tropical system forecast to potentially move across/affect the
southern FL Peninsula on Saturday. Refer to the National Hurricane
Center for the latest tropical-related forecast information. Model
guidance indicates the possibility for a sufficiently buoyant
airmass to encompass at least the FL Keys on Saturday. An increase
in the low-level hodograph would potentially favor weak/transient
mesocyclones moving from the FL Straits into the Keys. There is
currently lower confidence in the plume of higher theta-e (mid 70s
dewpoints) penetrating inland over south FL.
..Smith.. 06/02/2022
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