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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, June 2, 2022

SPC Jun 2, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas-Oklahoma border northward into the central Great Plains on Saturday. A marginal risk for a tornado may develop for the Florida Keys. ...Central and southern Great Plains... A cluster of thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of OK early Saturday morning but model guidance varies considerably regarding this scenario. In the wake of this potential early-day activity, models show a weak upper trough moving eastward across the central and southern High Plains during the period. Southerly low-level flow over the central-southern Great Plains to the west of surface high pressure over the OH Valley, will slowly advect moisture northward. Model guidance indicates surface dewpoints will range from the upper 60s-lower 70s over parts of OK to the mid 50s in southwest NE. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates and strong heating will contribute to a moderately to very unstable airmass by late afternoon. Residual outflow boundaries and a dryline may serve to focus storm initiation. Thunderstorm coverage is a bit uncertain given the weakly forced scenario and relatively high model variability in storm coverage/placement. Nonetheless, the magnitude of buoyancy/shear could aid in locally severe thunderstorms capable of a hail/wind risk beginning during the afternoon and persisting into the evening before diminishing. ...South FL and Keys... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the development of a tropical system forecast to potentially move across/affect the southern FL Peninsula on Saturday. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest tropical-related forecast information. Model guidance indicates the possibility for a sufficiently buoyant airmass to encompass at least the FL Keys on Saturday. An increase in the low-level hodograph would potentially favor weak/transient mesocyclones moving from the FL Straits into the Keys. There is currently lower confidence in the plume of higher theta-e (mid 70s dewpoints) penetrating inland over south FL. ..Smith.. 06/02/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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