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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, June 1, 2022

SPC Jun 1, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID SOUTH...OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening in a narrow corridor extending from southern portions of the Great Plains into the Mid South, Ohio Valley and northern Mid Atlantic region. Some of these will pose a risk for producing mainly severe wind and hail. ...20z Update... The main change for the 20z update was to extend the Slight risk and corresponding SIG wind and hail probabilities westward across small portion of southeast NM and far west TX. Moderate effective shear will overlap with a strongly unstable airmass supporting initial high-based supercell activity this afternoon in a weak low-level easterly upslope flow regime. With time, any more discrete convection will develop into eastward propagating clusters via outflow interactions. Isolated wind gusts of 65-80 mph will be possible, in addition to sporadic 2+ inch hail. The Slight and Marginal risk areas were trimmed across Oklahoma based on latest observations and outflow position. Other minor adjustments of the Slight risk area across the Mid-South is based on latest CAMs guidance and forecast soundings indicating weakening of any convection as it spreads into these areas later this evening. Areas across the Ohio Valley and Northeast where Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301 in ongoing have remained unchanged with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022/ ...Synopsis... Blocking has become more prominent to the east of the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, with a mid-level high now centered east-northeast of Hudson Bay and a pair of more notable mid-level lows centered either side to its south, offshore of the Canadian Maritimes and southwest of Hudson Bay. A modest belt of westerlies lingers to the south of this regime, to the north of mid-level subtropical ridging which will be maintained across much of the Gulf Coast states and Gulf of Mexico, though a weak embedded mid-level low persists to the north-northeast of the Bahamas. Seasonably mild to cool near-surface air associated with the mid-level lows has infiltrated much of the northern through south central Great Plains, upper half of the Mississippi Valley and New England. The front across the southern Great Plains into Great Lakes is preceded by multiple outflow boundaries, with the front and conglomerate outflow forecast to advance southward through much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and a bit farther southward across the mid to lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains through daybreak Thursday. The boundary layer to the south of the front and outflow remains seasonably moist and continues to moisten further, which will likely contribute to moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. While the boundaries have become increasingly displaced to the south of the stronger but weakening mid/upper westerlies, deep-layer shear may still be marginally sufficient to support occasional organized storm structures and organizing storm clusters anywhere from the southern Great Plains through the Mid South and Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic states. ...Southern Great Plains into northern Mid Atlantic... A number of weak mid/upper perturbations, some convectively generated, along the southern fringe of the westerlies may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development and intensification as the boundary layer destabilizes by mid to late afternoon. This will be mostly focused in a relatively narrow corridor near/just to the south of the front/outflow. Deep-layer mean wind fields may be somewhat stronger across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic states, while lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates will be generally steeper across the southern Great Plains into the Red River Valley. However, in the mean, similar severe weather potential may exist across most areas, with organizing storm clusters capable of producing severe wind and hail possible this afternoon into tonight. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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