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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Friday, May 6, 2022

SPC May 6, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Fri May 06 2022 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE...FAR NORTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible primarily from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into Virginia and North Carolina. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are possible through this evening. A significant dry slot is quickly reducing thunderstorms chances from AL into western GA, while storms over southern GA into the FL Panhandle have had trouble getting organized. As such, probabilities have been reduced in these areas. Farther north, strong cooling aloft continues to evolve across the Appalachians, with the primary severe corridor expected from eastern TN into southern VA and NC. For more information see mesoscale discussions 675 and 676. ..Jewell.. 05/06/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri May 06 2022/ ...Southeast States/southern Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic States... Initially, severe storms will remain possible especially across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle along an earlier outflow-related effective boundary. Surface-based severe storm/tornado potential will also increase over time to the north/northeast across more of Georgia and north Florida, as this region steadily moistens/recovers in the wake of an early morning squall line, and ahead of an eastward-moving cold front. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 672. With a further strengthening of mid/high-level winds in association with the upstream vort/speed max, deep-layer/low-level shear will support supercells and other organized storm modes capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. A regional maximized severe-weather/tornado potential is also expected to focus across northern North Carolina and southern Virginia later today in vicinity of a northward-shifting warm front and late-day development secondary surface low. This potentially includes multiple rounds of storms in some areas, including supercells and bowing segments with damaging winds and tornadoes in addition to isolated large hail, mostly in association with rotating storms. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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