SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Fri May 06 2022
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN
TENNESSEE...FAR NORTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible primarily from
eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into Virginia and North Carolina.
Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are possible through this
evening.
A significant dry slot is quickly reducing thunderstorms chances
from AL into western GA, while storms over southern GA into the FL
Panhandle have had trouble getting organized. As such, probabilities
have been reduced in these areas.
Farther north, strong cooling aloft continues to evolve across the
Appalachians, with the primary severe corridor expected from eastern
TN into southern VA and NC.
For more information see mesoscale discussions 675 and 676.
..Jewell.. 05/06/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri May 06 2022/
...Southeast States/southern Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic States...
Initially, severe storms will remain possible especially across far
southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle along an earlier
outflow-related effective boundary. Surface-based severe
storm/tornado potential will also increase over time to the
north/northeast across more of Georgia and north Florida, as this
region steadily moistens/recovers in the wake of an early morning
squall line, and ahead of an eastward-moving cold front. For
additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 672. With a
further strengthening of mid/high-level winds in association with
the upstream vort/speed max, deep-layer/low-level shear will support
supercells and other organized storm modes capable of damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.
A regional maximized severe-weather/tornado potential is also
expected to focus across northern North Carolina and southern
Virginia later today in vicinity of a northward-shifting warm front
and late-day development secondary surface low. This potentially
includes multiple rounds of storms in some areas, including
supercells and bowing segments with damaging winds and tornadoes in
addition to isolated large hail, mostly in association with rotating
storms.
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