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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, May 18, 2022

SPC May 18, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe thunderstorm risk may be associated with a positively tilted upper trough and associated cold front moving across the eastern CONUS this weekend. Severe thunderstorm potential may return to the parts of the southern Plains by D6/Monday, but predictability is rather low regarding the synoptic pattern and potential for low-level moisture return early next week. ...D4/Saturday: Northeast...Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley...Mid MS Valley...southern Plains... The cold front is expected to move only slowly eastward on Saturday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms possible near and north of the frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. While some strong storms are possible, the tendency for stronger midlevel flow to be displaced to the cool side of the boundary results in considerable uncertainty regarding the organized severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will support an area of moderate buoyancy into parts of the Northeast. Midlevel flow is forecast to be rather weak, and generally limited large-scale ascent may tend to suppress storm coverage, but isolated strong storms will be possible within this regime. ...D5/Sunday: New England into the Mid Atlantic... Extended-range guidance continues to vary regarding the timing of the cold front into parts of the Mid Atlantic and New England on Sunday, but some severe thunderstorm threat may evolve by Sunday afternoon, as a frontal wave potentially develops and moves across northern New England. Depending on the timing of the front and the strength of any frontal wave, somewhat more favorable deep-layer flow/shear may overspread the warm sector, supporting an organized severe thunderstorm risk. If guidance comes into better agreement regarding frontal timing, severe probabilities may eventually be introduced for Sunday across some parts of this region. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)