Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Some severe thunderstorm risk may be associated with a positively
tilted upper trough and associated cold front moving across the
eastern CONUS this weekend. Severe thunderstorm potential may return
to the parts of the southern Plains by D6/Monday, but predictability
is rather low regarding the synoptic pattern and potential for
low-level moisture return early next week.
...D4/Saturday: Northeast...Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley...Mid MS
Valley...southern Plains...
The cold front is expected to move only slowly eastward on Saturday,
with scattered to numerous thunderstorms possible near and north of
the frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes
region. While some strong storms are possible, the tendency for
stronger midlevel flow to be displaced to the cool side of the
boundary results in considerable uncertainty regarding the organized
severe thunderstorm potential.
Meanwhile, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will support an
area of moderate buoyancy into parts of the Northeast. Midlevel flow
is forecast to be rather weak, and generally limited large-scale
ascent may tend to suppress storm coverage, but isolated strong
storms will be possible within this regime.
...D5/Sunday: New England into the Mid Atlantic...
Extended-range guidance continues to vary regarding the timing of
the cold front into parts of the Mid Atlantic and New England on
Sunday, but some severe thunderstorm threat may evolve by Sunday
afternoon, as a frontal wave potentially develops and moves across
northern New England. Depending on the timing of the front and the
strength of any frontal wave, somewhat more favorable deep-layer
flow/shear may overspread the warm sector, supporting an organized
severe thunderstorm risk. If guidance comes into better agreement
regarding frontal timing, severe probabilities may eventually be
introduced for Sunday across some parts of this region.
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