SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
MO...CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL...SOUTHEAST WI...NORTHWEST IN...LOWER MI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible in a corridor from parts of
the Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains, mainly
Friday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are
expected to be the primary threats.
...Synopsis...
A broad, positively tilted upper trough is forecast to move eastward
from the central/northern Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region
on Friday. In conjunction with this trough, a deep surface low will
move from the upper Great Lakes toward the southern part of Hudson
Bay, while an attendant cold front will move across parts of the
Midwest, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains.
...Parts of the Great Lakes into the southern Plains...
A broad region of moderate to locally strong instability is expected
to develop along/ahead of the cold front Friday afternoon, as steep
midlevel lapse rates overspread relatively rich low-level moisture.
The main uncertainty regarding the severe threat is potentially
limited large-scale ascent across most of the frontal zone, with the
primary midlevel shortwave trough and surface low expected to move
rather quickly northeastward away from the region with time.
However, modest convergence near the frontal zone may support widely
scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening.
Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization,
especially from the mid MS Valley northeastward into Lower Michigan,
where midlevel flow will be somewhat stronger compared to areas
further south. Thunderstorm clusters capable of hail and locally
damaging wind appear to be the primary threat.
Further south into the southern Plains, secondary surface low
development appears possible, as a dryline develops from southwest
OK into west TX. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weaker in
this area, though a weak shortwave trough moving into southwest TX
may help to support a secondary area of storm development, with
strong instability supporting a localized hail and severe gust
threat.
..Dean.. 05/18/2022
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