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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, May 18, 2022

SPC May 18, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MO...CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL...SOUTHEAST WI...NORTHWEST IN...LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible in a corridor from parts of the Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains, mainly Friday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted upper trough is forecast to move eastward from the central/northern Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region on Friday. In conjunction with this trough, a deep surface low will move from the upper Great Lakes toward the southern part of Hudson Bay, while an attendant cold front will move across parts of the Midwest, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains. ...Parts of the Great Lakes into the southern Plains... A broad region of moderate to locally strong instability is expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front Friday afternoon, as steep midlevel lapse rates overspread relatively rich low-level moisture. The main uncertainty regarding the severe threat is potentially limited large-scale ascent across most of the frontal zone, with the primary midlevel shortwave trough and surface low expected to move rather quickly northeastward away from the region with time. However, modest convergence near the frontal zone may support widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, especially from the mid MS Valley northeastward into Lower Michigan, where midlevel flow will be somewhat stronger compared to areas further south. Thunderstorm clusters capable of hail and locally damaging wind appear to be the primary threat. Further south into the southern Plains, secondary surface low development appears possible, as a dryline develops from southwest OK into west TX. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weaker in this area, though a weak shortwave trough moving into southwest TX may help to support a secondary area of storm development, with strong instability supporting a localized hail and severe gust threat. ..Dean.. 05/18/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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