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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, May 13, 2022

SPC May 13, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement through roughly Day 6, with a cold front to move across the Northeast Day 4/Monday. Some severe risk may evolve east of the central Appalachians -- across the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic vicinity, but with some potential apparent at this time for morning/early afternoon frontal passage across much of the area, will not introduce an areal highlight at this time. Meanwhile, from later in the day on Day 4 through Days 5 and 6, focus will shift westward into the High Plains/central Plains region, as the trailing portion of the baroclinic zone begins to retreat northward, allowing return of higher theta-e air into the central states. While details differ a bit between various model runs with respect to timing of features embedded in the westerly/west-northwesterly flow aloft, and the northward advance of the warm front, at least some severe risk is expected over the central portion of the country near and east of the Front Range. Day 6, severe potential may expand eastward, as the remnant front retreats northward, allowing return of higher theta-e northward, beneath the belt of stronger quasi-zonal flow aloft. Again however, uncertainty in location/speed of the northward advance of the front, and associated high theta-e boundary layer, casts enough uncertainty so as to preclude outlook areal introduction at this time. Finally, model solutions begin to diverge rather substantially through Days 7-8, with the evolution/advance of a substantial western U.S. trough. While this system would undoubtedly be accompanied by an increase in severe potential, details remain far too uncertain to quantify/locate potential severe risk levels in any area. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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