Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement through roughly Day
6, with a cold front to move across the Northeast Day 4/Monday.
Some severe risk may evolve east of the central Appalachians --
across the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic vicinity, but with some
potential apparent at this time for morning/early afternoon frontal
passage across much of the area, will not introduce an areal
highlight at this time.
Meanwhile, from later in the day on Day 4 through Days 5 and 6,
focus will shift westward into the High Plains/central Plains
region, as the trailing portion of the baroclinic zone begins to
retreat northward, allowing return of higher theta-e air into the
central states. While details differ a bit between various model
runs with respect to timing of features embedded in the
westerly/west-northwesterly flow aloft, and the northward advance of
the warm front, at least some severe risk is expected over the
central portion of the country near and east of the Front Range.
Day 6, severe potential may expand eastward, as the remnant front
retreats northward, allowing return of higher theta-e northward,
beneath the belt of stronger quasi-zonal flow aloft. Again however,
uncertainty in location/speed of the northward advance of the front,
and associated high theta-e boundary layer, casts enough uncertainty
so as to preclude outlook areal introduction at this time.
Finally, model solutions begin to diverge rather substantially
through Days 7-8, with the evolution/advance of a substantial
western U.S. trough. While this system would undoubtedly be
accompanied by an increase in severe potential, details remain far
too uncertain to quantify/locate potential severe risk levels in any
area.
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