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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, May 13, 2022

SPC May 13, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO EASTERN KANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are expected from the Lower Great Lakes area southwestward across the Ohio/Tennessee/Mid Mississippi Valleys to Kansas/Oklahoma/northeast Texas. Locally damaging winds and hail will be the primary risks. ...Synopsis... An upper low over central Canada, and an associated trough trailing southward into the Upper Midwest, will dig south-southeastward Sunday, approaching western fringes of the Appalachians overnight. At the surface, a cold front -- trialing southwestward from Canadian low pressure -- will advance similarly eastward/southeastward across the southern and eastern U.S. through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, and the Arklatex... Diurnal heating/destabilization is forecast ahead of a cold front progged to advance eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest/Ohio Valley, and southeastward across the Tennessee and Mid Mississippi Valleys and southern Plains. Along and ahead of this front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop diurnally. While stronger flow aloft will remain to the cool side of this front, moderate westerly/northwesterly flow aloft spreading into the pre-frontal warm sector will foster growth of locally organized/severe storms, with some upscale/linear growth expected. Locally damaging winds will be the main severe risk, though hail will also be possible. While much of the convection will tend to peak diurnally in the late afternoon/early evening, convection -- and some severe risk -- may linger after dark, particularly across southwestern portions of the outlook area where greater instability will reside. ..Goss.. 05/13/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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