Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models show reasonable similarity in moving a cold
front eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Day 4/Sunday,
and then across the Northeast and eventually off the New England and
Mid-Atlantic Coasts Day 5/Monday. Some severe risk will likely
accompany the advance of this front, but smaller-scale model
differences regarding specifics of the CAPE/shear environment ahead
of the front cast some uncertainty as to degree/coverage of risk.
This precludes any introduction of severe-weather probabilities for
the Ohio Valley Region Day 4, and the Northeast Day 5.
As the front clears the coast Day 5, attention shifts westward to
the northern and central High Plains/central Plains area, as the
western fringe of the front retreats northward. With a return of
higher theta-e air east of the Front Range, and
moderate/increasingly zonal flow aloft, the general pattern would
support afternoon High Plains convective development, shifting
eastward into lower elevations of the Plains overnight in tandem
with the nocturnal low-level jet cycle. However, with subtle
features embedded within the broader flow field modulating degree of
risk, predictability precludes highlighting specifics regarding
potential areas of greater threat at this time.
Models begin to deviate at larger scales later Day 7 (Wednesday),
and then diverge substantially by Thursday (Day 8), with respect to
the development and progression of a substantial western U.S.
trough. This increasing uncertainty precludes a severe-weather risk
assessment through latter stages of the period.
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