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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Thursday, May 12, 2022

SPC May 12, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models show reasonable similarity in moving a cold front eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Day 4/Sunday, and then across the Northeast and eventually off the New England and Mid-Atlantic Coasts Day 5/Monday. Some severe risk will likely accompany the advance of this front, but smaller-scale model differences regarding specifics of the CAPE/shear environment ahead of the front cast some uncertainty as to degree/coverage of risk. This precludes any introduction of severe-weather probabilities for the Ohio Valley Region Day 4, and the Northeast Day 5. As the front clears the coast Day 5, attention shifts westward to the northern and central High Plains/central Plains area, as the western fringe of the front retreats northward. With a return of higher theta-e air east of the Front Range, and moderate/increasingly zonal flow aloft, the general pattern would support afternoon High Plains convective development, shifting eastward into lower elevations of the Plains overnight in tandem with the nocturnal low-level jet cycle. However, with subtle features embedded within the broader flow field modulating degree of risk, predictability precludes highlighting specifics regarding potential areas of greater threat at this time. Models begin to deviate at larger scales later Day 7 (Wednesday), and then diverge substantially by Thursday (Day 8), with respect to the development and progression of a substantial western U.S. trough. This increasing uncertainty precludes a severe-weather risk assessment through latter stages of the period. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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