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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, May 12, 2022

SPC May 12, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI/NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms are expected across portions of the central third of the U.S. -- particularly from the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity eastward toward the Ozarks. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low over the Canadian Prairie is forecast to shift slowly eastward Saturday, while disturbances embedded in northwesterly flow aloft shift southeastward across the Plains/Upper Midwest through the period. At the surface, a dissipating cold front will shift eastward across the Midwest, while a second shifts southeastward across the northern and central Plains -- to a position from the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward to Oklahoma by the end of the period. ...Upper Mississippi Valley to the southern Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected by mid to late afternoon along a cold front, from the western Upper Great Lakes southwestward to western Texas. Modest flow aloft is expected across northern portions of this region, which in tandem with weaker instability as compared to areas farther south, should limit overall severe risk to isolated/stronger storms. Over the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity, a more favorably moist boundary layer will destabilize in conjunction with daytime heating, to yield moderate CAPE. This will support development of isolated storms by late afternoon -- which should organize locally given moderate northwesterly flow aloft, atop the low-level southerlies. With low-level shear expected to remain rather weak, damaging winds and hail will be the primary concerns. During the evening, as a low-level jet develops over the southern Plains region, upscale growth of convection into an east-southeastward-moving MCS appears possible, which would allow wind risk to potentially increase somewhat, spreading into parts of southwestern Missouri/northwestern Arkansas overnight. ..Goss.. 05/12/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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