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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

SPC May 11, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A gradually dissipating cold front is forecast to cross the Midwest region Day 4/Saturday, while becoming more east-west oriented and then eventually returning back northward across the Oklahoma vicinity as a warm front. Meanwhile, a secondary front is forecast to shift southeastward across the north-central U.S./Upper Midwest. Scattered thunderstorms should accompany the initial/weakening boundary, though severe risk should remain isolated/limited. Later, as the secondary front crosses the lower Missouri Valley region, it should eventually impinge upon/overtake the remnant/earlier front lifting slowly northward across Oklahoma. A resulting area of nocturnal convective development may evolve. While some severe risk could accompany this convection, the scenario remains uncertain, precluding any areal highlights. Day 5/Sunday, continued southeastward/southward advance of this front is expected, as disturbances move through the west-northwesterly flow field aloft over the central U.S. on the southern fringe of the eastward-drifting central Canada upper low. While stronger flow aloft should remain northwest of the surface front, southerly component to the low-level flow veering to west-northwesterly aloft suggests ample shear to support some severe risk. However, with models differing with respect to intensity/timing/orientation of the disturbances embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft, uncertainty with respect to details again precludes areal highlights at this time. Model differences increase markedly Day 6/Monday, as the upper pattern evolves. This decrease in model agreement through latter stages of the period precludes assessment of longer-term severe potential. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC