Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A gradually dissipating cold front is forecast to cross the Midwest
region Day 4/Saturday, while becoming more east-west oriented and
then eventually returning back northward across the Oklahoma
vicinity as a warm front. Meanwhile, a secondary front is forecast
to shift southeastward across the north-central U.S./Upper Midwest.
Scattered thunderstorms should accompany the initial/weakening
boundary, though severe risk should remain isolated/limited. Later,
as the secondary front crosses the lower Missouri Valley region, it
should eventually impinge upon/overtake the remnant/earlier front
lifting slowly northward across Oklahoma. A resulting area of
nocturnal convective development may evolve. While some severe risk
could accompany this convection, the scenario remains uncertain,
precluding any areal highlights.
Day 5/Sunday, continued southeastward/southward advance of this
front is expected, as disturbances move through the
west-northwesterly flow field aloft over the central U.S. on the
southern fringe of the eastward-drifting central Canada upper low.
While stronger flow aloft should remain northwest of the surface
front, southerly component to the low-level flow veering to
west-northwesterly aloft suggests ample shear to support some severe
risk. However, with models differing with respect to
intensity/timing/orientation of the disturbances embedded in the
northwesterly flow aloft, uncertainty with respect to details again
precludes areal highlights at this time.
Model differences increase markedly Day 6/Monday, as the upper
pattern evolves. This decrease in model agreement through latter
stages of the period precludes assessment of longer-term severe
potential.
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