SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WISCONSIN TO
OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected from
Wisconsin to the southern Plains, with isolated stronger storms
becoming capable of damaging wind/hail production.
...Synopsis...
An upper low shifting out of North Dakota at the start of the period
will drift slowly/steadily northeastward across southern portions of
Saskatchewan/Manitoba through the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile,
a filling low will move northwestward across the Southeast/southern
Appalachians.
At the surface, a weakening cold front will drift southeastward
across the Upper Midwest/Missouri Valley/southern Plains through the
day. This front will focus diurnally driven, scattered to isolated
convective development.
...Wisconsin to the southern Plains...
While most of the large-scale ascent -- and accompanying stronger
flow aloft -- shifts northeastward into Canada during the day,
afternoon heating of a moist/unstable warm sector ahead of the
weakening cold front will result in strong destabilization. With
modest shear -- owing to southerly low-level winds beneath moderate
mid-level flow -- supporting mainly multicells/weakly rotating
supercells, hail/wind risk will likely manifest with a few stronger
storms. Greatest risk will exist during the afternoon and evening,
though storms may continue into the overnight hours.
..Goss.. 05/11/2022
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