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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, April 22, 2022

SPC Apr 22, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley and Lower Michigan on Sunday. ...Middle Mississippi Valley to Great Lakes Vicinity... The compact upper low over the Upper Midwest Sunday morning will gradually weaken as it shifts east/northeast into Ontario. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper trough will pivot east from the Four Corners/Southwestern Deserts to the central/southern High Plains. Height falls will remain weak to neutral from the southern Plains into the Midwest, but enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will remain over the regions. An occluding surface low will weaken as it shifts northeast in tandem with the mid/upper level low/trough from the Upper Midwest to near James Bay by Monday morning. A cold front is forecast to extend from eastern WI into central MO/OK and western TX. Showers and thunderstorms likely will be ongoing near/ahead of the front across WI into MO and eastern OK, and perhaps central TX. This activity, along with cloud cover and generally weak midlevel lapse rates will limit destabilization ahead of the front, especially across the Middle Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes vicinity. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear and at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE may support sporadic strong gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings show favorably curved low-level hodographs, which could support a tornado or two with linear convective modes across parts of IL into Lower MI if the low levels can destabilize sufficiently. ...TX/OK/AR... Low-level south/southeasterly flow across TX into southeast OK/AR will maintain northward transport of higher-quality Gulf moisture ahead of the surface cold front. Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F are likely beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger heating should allow for great destabilization compared to further north/northeast, though morning convection, along with a midlevel warm layer are resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty in severe potential. Furthermore, weak surface cyclogenesis, in conjunction with neutral to modest height falls and nebulous large-scale ascent will keep severe potential focused near the southward-sagging cold front. As a result, it is unclear how much open warm sector convection may develop, and any storms that form could remain near the boundary with storm motion toward the cool side of the front. If warm sector storms develop, supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible, but uncertainty is too great for more than unconditional Marginal risk-level probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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