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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, April 22, 2022

SPC Apr 22, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Large, damaging hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado are possible with any thunderstorm that can develop over parts of south-central Kansas. Large hail is also possible across parts of southeast Nebraska this evening into tonight. ...Southern and Central Plains... Latest surface analysis shows a most airmass in place across much of the southern and central Plains. Backed easterly upslope flow has backed the moist airmass into parts of western Kansas where surface dewpoints are now in the 60 to 65 F range. A warm front extends eastward across south-central Kansas with a dryline in place from southwest Kansas southward into northwest Oklahoma. Convective initiation has taken place over the last hour to the east and northeast of Dodge City along a bulge in the dryline where low-level convergence is maximized. The storms will continue to take root in the boundary layer over the next couple of hours. Although large-scale ascent is relatively weak across the central Plains, the strengthening low-level jet will provide support for continued convective development. The storms are located in a favorable thermodynamic environment, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. In addition, a mid-level speed max in central Kansas is contributing to 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. This will support supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible, and perhaps an isolated tornado threat could occur with the stronger cells. The storms are expected to remain relatively isolated, moving north-northeastward into north-central Kansas over the next few hours. But the cap is forecast to re-strengthen by late evening which should weaken any surface-based storms. Further to the north into southeast Nebraska, model forecasts suggest that elevated thunderstorm development will take place as the low-level jet strengthens late this evening into the early overnight period. RAP forecast soundings around 06Z in southeast Nebraska have a sharp temperature inversion below 850 mb but show steep lapse rates from 700 to above 300 mb. MUCAPE is forecast in the 1200 to 1800 J/kg range, with effective shear near 60 knots. This would be favorable for large hail with supercells that remain elevated. The threat could develop northeastward into parts of the mid Missouri Valley after midnight. ...Ozarks/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a east-to-west warm front located across south-central Missouri. A moist airmass is in place south of the front across much of the Ozarks, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the mid 60s F. The RAP currently has MLCAPE along and south of the front around 1000 J/kg. A small area of thunderstorms is ongoing near the front to the northeast of Springfield. These storms will likely persist for a few more hours. Deep-layer shear appears adequate for a marginal severe threat, with hail and a few strong wind gusts possible. Further north, elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop across northern Missouri and southern Iowa tonight, in associated with a strengthening low-level jet. Enough instability is forecast in the mid-levels for a hail threat with the stronger cells. ..Broyles.. 04/22/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC