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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, April 13, 2022

SPC Apr 13, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday evening and night from parts of eastern Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low should remain centered over Ontario on Friday, with a belt of enhanced mid-level westerly winds extending across much of the central CONUS. Quasi-zonal flow should be maintained across the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley through much of the period, with multiple low-amplitude disturbances possibly moving eastward over these areas. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to move off the East Coast, with low-level return flow occurring over parts of east TX into eastern OK and the lower MS Valley. A weak surface low should be present over the southern High Plains. A dryline is forecast to extend southward from this low over central TX Friday afternoon. ...Eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley... With large-forcing aloft remaining nebulous, it is unclear whether storms will form along/east of the sharpening dryline Friday afternoon as low-level moisture returns northward. There is also still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the both the quality and northward extent of the moisture return into the ArkLaTex region and lower MS Valley. Some guidance suggests isolated convection may develop by early Friday evening along/near a warm front that should extend from eastern OK into northern MS. Modest low-level warm advection may aid this convective development. If any thunderstorms form they could be severe, as forecast instability and deep-layer shear both appear adequate for updraft organization. Have opted to include low severe probabilities extending from the vicinity of the forecast dryline and warm front positions in eastern OK southeastward across parts of the lower MS Valley in the event that convection initiates and spreads southeastward Friday evening/night. However, confidence in this scenario occurring remains fairly low. ..Gleason.. 04/13/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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