SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday evening
and night from parts of eastern Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi
Valley.
...Synopsis...
A deep upper low should remain centered over Ontario on Friday, with
a belt of enhanced mid-level westerly winds extending across much of
the central CONUS. Quasi-zonal flow should be maintained across the
southern Plains into the lower MS Valley through much of the period,
with multiple low-amplitude disturbances possibly moving eastward
over these areas. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to move
off the East Coast, with low-level return flow occurring over parts
of east TX into eastern OK and the lower MS Valley. A weak surface
low should be present over the southern High Plains. A dryline is
forecast to extend southward from this low over central TX Friday
afternoon.
...Eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
With large-forcing aloft remaining nebulous, it is unclear whether
storms will form along/east of the sharpening dryline Friday
afternoon as low-level moisture returns northward. There is also
still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the both the quality
and northward extent of the moisture return into the ArkLaTex region
and lower MS Valley. Some guidance suggests isolated convection may
develop by early Friday evening along/near a warm front that should
extend from eastern OK into northern MS. Modest low-level warm
advection may aid this convective development. If any thunderstorms
form they could be severe, as forecast instability and deep-layer
shear both appear adequate for updraft organization. Have opted to
include low severe probabilities extending from the vicinity of the
forecast dryline and warm front positions in eastern OK
southeastward across parts of the lower MS Valley in the event that
convection initiates and spreads southeastward Friday evening/night.
However, confidence in this scenario occurring remains fairly low.
..Gleason.. 04/13/2022
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