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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, April 13, 2022

SPC Apr 13, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected late this evening and tonight across a broad portion of the southern/central Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Some of the tornadoes could be strong across parts of Iowa. ...Central Plains/Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley... The latest surface analysis shows a 987 mb low over western Iowa with a cold front extending south-southwestward across the central Plains. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F, is in place to the east of the front across much of Iowa, eastern Kansas, Missouri and Illinois. Strong to severe thunderstorms, discrete in nature, are ongoing along and to the north of a warm front extending eastward from the low across northwest and north-central Iowa. A narrow line of strong to severe thunderstorms are just ahead of the cold front across eastern Nebraska and northern Kansas. In the mid-levels, water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low in the northern High Plains. A plume of mid-level moisture extends northeastward across the central Plains where a 60 to 75 knot mid-level jet is located. As the jet moves northeastward across mid Missouri Valley and mid to upper Mississippi Valley this evening, a low-level jet will strengthen across the region. This will continue to result in widespread severe thunderstorm development, with a potential for large hail, wind damage and tornadoes. The tornado threat will be greatest with supercells that interact with the warm front this evening across northern Iowa. 0-3 km storm relative helicity is forecast to remain in the 500 to 600 m2/s2 range near the warm front suggesting that strong tornadoes will be possible with supercells that remain dominant. These storms could also produce wind damage and hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter. To the north of the warm front, supercells with large hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible from far eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota. Further to the southwest, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will remain intact this evening, and expand southward across most of eastern Kansas. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge of the line as it moves east-southeastward across the mid to lower Missouri Valley this evening. A few wind gusts of greater than 65 knots along with large hail will be possible along the more intense parts of the line. The severe threat will continue to develop eastward into the Ozarks tonight, but should become more isolated with time. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest water vapor imagery shows southwest mid-level flow in place from the southern Plains northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough is evident across eastern parts of the southern Plains, where a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing. The storms are located along the northwestern edge of a moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. These storms will continue to move eastward across the remainder of east Texas this evening, and should affect parts of the Arklatex and lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The latest RAP analysis shows a corridor of moderate to strong instability across central and east Texas, with MLCAPE ranging from near 4000 J/kg in the eastern Texas Hill Country to near 2000 J/kg in far northeast Texas. The complex of storms will continue to move eastward toward the instability axis this evening. The storms are also located on the northwestern edge of a 50 to 65 knot mid-level jet. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Killeen, Texas is sampling the western edge of the jet and has 0-6 km shear at 70 knots. A looped hodograph is also present suggesting that supercells should be capable of producing tornadoes this evening. In addition, lapse rates are steep in the mid-levels. This will support large hail. Hailstones of 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the most dominant cells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/13/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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