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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, April 12, 2022

SPC Apr 12, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for strong/damaging thunderstorm winds may exist across parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes should continue occluding as it moves slowly northeastward into Canada. The primary surface low will remain over these regions as well, while a secondary low should develop eastward over parts of the Northeast through the day. A cold front will also move eastward over much of the eastern states, but it should stall over the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... Adequate low-level moisture should be in place ahead of the cold front for surface-based thunderstorms to develop by Thursday afternoon. Diurnal heating coupled with the sufficiently moist low-level airmass and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates should be enough to support weak instability. Convergence along the front itself appears weak, as low-level winds are forecast to gradually veer to westerly through the day. Still, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop Thursday afternoon along much of the front extending from parts of the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and perhaps southern New England. Mid-level winds will be stronger with northward extent across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support some organization with these thunderstorms. Isolated strong to damaging winds should be the main threat as convection spreads eastward and eventually off the East Coast through Thursday evening. ..Gleason.. 04/12/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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