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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, April 12, 2022

SPC Apr 12, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OK INTO CENTRAL AR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely continue into late evening across parts of southeast Oklahoma into central Arkansas. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes remain possible. ...01Z Update... Scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from southeast OK into western and central AR, along and east of a slow-moving surface boundary. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and effective shear of 50+ kt (as noted on recent mesoanalyses and the 00Z LZK sounding) will help to sustain this activity into the late evening, with a continued threat of large hail (potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter) and locally damaging wind gusts. 0-1 km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2 will also support a tornado threat with the stronger discrete cells from far eastern OK into AR, including the potential for a strong tornado. Some upscale growth is possible later tonight into northeast AR and western TN, which would be accompanied by a damaging wind risk. Further southwest into north and central TX, storms have thus far failed to initiate along the dryline. While isolated development cannot be ruled out through the evening, it is becoming increasingly unlikely due to increasing MLCINH and a lack of large-scale ascent across the region. ..Dean.. 04/12/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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