SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
OK INTO CENTRAL AR...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely continue into late
evening across parts of southeast Oklahoma into central Arkansas.
Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes remain
possible.
...01Z Update...
Scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from southeast OK into
western and central AR, along and east of a slow-moving surface
boundary. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and effective shear of 50+ kt (as
noted on recent mesoanalyses and the 00Z LZK sounding) will help to
sustain this activity into the late evening, with a continued threat
of large hail (potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter) and
locally damaging wind gusts. 0-1 km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2 will also
support a tornado threat with the stronger discrete cells from far
eastern OK into AR, including the potential for a strong tornado.
Some upscale growth is possible later tonight into northeast AR and
western TN, which would be accompanied by a damaging wind risk.
Further southwest into north and central TX, storms have thus far
failed to initiate along the dryline. While isolated development
cannot be ruled out through the evening, it is becoming increasingly
unlikely due to increasing MLCINH and a lack of large-scale ascent
across the region.
..Dean.. 04/12/2022
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