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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, March 29, 2022

SPC Mar 29, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Great Plains and Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. ...Synopsis... A closed upper-low over central California will start to move east this morning and move into the central/southern Plains by late tonight. A strong mid-upper level jet will overspread the southern Plains into the Midwest. A deepening surface cyclone will develop with a strong mass response and a large region of 50+ knot flow at 850mb from the western Gulf to the Upper Midwest after 00Z. A dryline will extend from the surface low to west Texas for most of the period before starting to advance eastward across the southern Plains late tonight. ...Central/Southern Plains... Moisture remains limited across the Plains this morning with 60 degree dewpoints barely north of I-10. As southerly low-level flow strengthens through the day, this moisture will advect northward and destabilize the warm sector ahead of a dryline which will extend from West Texas to the I-35 corridor in Kansas. However, moisture quality remains low and therefore, some mixing is anticipated with dewpoints likely to stay in the upper 50s to low 60s. This dry airmass, combined with a stout EML, should limit convective potential during the day today despite persistent large-scale ascent and height falls. Expect storms to form along the dryline near 00Z as the upper-level trough advances eastward and the low-level jet strengthens, providing ample lift to overcome the large cap. Deep-layer shear will support organized/rotating updrafts, however, storm motion will remain mostly parallel to the dryline. Therefore, expect upscale growth into a QLCS to occur rather quickly with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Most 00Z CAM guidance has a somewhat disorganized line through 06Z with better organization closer to 12Z. This seems to be associated with the arrival of better quality moisture and a 60+ kt low-level jet. Expanded the 5 percent tornado probabilities from the prior Day 2 outlook eastward across Oklahoma to account for this threat early Wednesday morning. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... The forecast is complicated across this region this evening/early overnight as 00Z guidance shows considerable variability in moisture quality across the region which has considerable impacts on storm threats. Regardless of the low-level moisture, an elevated hail threat is expected across eastern Nebraska and most of Iowa after 00Z along the cold front/dryline near the surface low. Forecast soundings show very steep lapse rates (8 to 8.5 C/km), moderate to strong instability (MUCAPE 1500 to 2000 J/kg) and effective shear in excess of 50 knots. If sufficient low-level moistening can occur, some of the storms on the southern extent of this activity could become surface based. If this occurs, the low-level shear profile would support a tornado threat. Given the low-quality nature of the moisture and the northward distance it needs to travel, do not expect much of a surface-based storm threat to materialize. However, there is enough of a chance to warrant 2 percent tornado probabilities. ..Bentley/Darrow.. 03/29/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC