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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, March 27, 2022

SPC Mar 27, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Great Plains and Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday late afternoon and Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough centered over the Southwest deserts early Tuesday should reach the southern High Plains by early Wednesday, with a strong polar jet developing east-northeastward from northern Mexico toward the southern Plains and Ozarks/ArkLaTex late Tuesday. Lee-side cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a trailing southeastward-moving cold front across the central High Plains. A preceding northward-moving warm front will lead to an influx of a semi-moist air mass as far north as the Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley and potentially as far north as southern Iowa. ...Central/southern Plains to Lower Missouri Valley... A modestly moist (upper 50s to near 60 F surface dewpoints) air mass will become increasingly established across eastern Kansas, much of Missouri, into southeast Nebraska by late Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Influences such as DPVA/upper jet exit region and near-boundary convergence suggests that initial surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible by late afternoon Tuesday, likely focused across eastern Kansas and southeast Nebraska, with subsequent scattered development probable near the dryline/front by early and mid-evening across parts of Oklahoma and north/west-central Texas. Given the modest early season moisture quality, the warm-sector air mass is unlikely to be overly unstable coincident with initial deep convective development, with MLCAPE likely to limited to 750-1250 J/kg across parts of eastern Kansas into Oklahoma and north Texas. However, strong wind profiles should support some initial supercells and an evolving/mixed convective mode during the evening. Large hail and damaging winds can be expected across the region. A couple of tornadoes could also occur, perhaps especially in vicinity of the surface low/triple point across eastern Kansas and nearby Lower Missouri Valley, and/or across Oklahoma/east Texas and nearby ArkLaTex region coincident with a strengthening low-level jet Tuesday night. ..Guyer.. 03/27/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)