SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and
southern Great Plains and Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday late
afternoon and Tuesday night.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough centered over the Southwest deserts early
Tuesday should reach the southern High Plains by early Wednesday,
with a strong polar jet developing east-northeastward from northern
Mexico toward the southern Plains and Ozarks/ArkLaTex late Tuesday.
Lee-side cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains,
with a trailing southeastward-moving cold front across the central
High Plains. A preceding northward-moving warm front will lead to an
influx of a semi-moist air mass as far north as the Ozarks and Lower
Missouri Valley and potentially as far north as southern Iowa.
...Central/southern Plains to Lower Missouri Valley...
A modestly moist (upper 50s to near 60 F surface dewpoints) air mass
will become increasingly established across eastern Kansas, much of
Missouri, into southeast Nebraska by late Tuesday afternoon and
early evening. Influences such as DPVA/upper jet exit region and
near-boundary convergence suggests that initial surface-based
thunderstorm development will be possible by late afternoon Tuesday,
likely focused across eastern Kansas and southeast Nebraska, with
subsequent scattered development probable near the dryline/front by
early and mid-evening across parts of Oklahoma and
north/west-central Texas.
Given the modest early season moisture quality, the warm-sector air
mass is unlikely to be overly unstable coincident with initial deep
convective development, with MLCAPE likely to limited to 750-1250
J/kg across parts of eastern Kansas into Oklahoma and north Texas.
However, strong wind profiles should support some initial supercells
and an evolving/mixed convective mode during the evening. Large hail
and damaging winds can be expected across the region. A couple of
tornadoes could also occur, perhaps especially in vicinity of the
surface low/triple point across eastern Kansas and nearby Lower
Missouri Valley, and/or across Oklahoma/east Texas and nearby
ArkLaTex region coincident with a strengthening low-level jet
Tuesday night.
..Guyer.. 03/27/2022
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