SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Sun Feb 27 2022
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern Florida
into southeast Georgia.
...FL/GA...
Notable mid-level short-wave trough within the southern stream is
expected to dig southeast toward FL during the day as an 80kt 500mb
speed max translates toward the southern Peninsula and weakens by
early evening. This feature will maintain a weak surface low off the
FL Atlantic Coast along with the primary surface boundary; hence,
offshore flow is expected through the period. Even so, seasonally
cold 500mb temperatures (minus 16-18) will spread across northern FL
such that appreciable elevated buoyancy is expected to develop north
of the digging speed max. NAM forecast sounding for DAB exhibits
several hours of MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg if lifting a parcel
near 900mb. It appears a few elevated thunderstorms will likely
evolve ahead of the short wave where steep lapse rates and cooling
mid-level temperatures are maximized. This activity should spread
offshore by early evening.
...Pacific Northwest...
Weak instability is expected to develop within the warm conveyor
that will approach the OR/WA Coast later today. While forecast
soundings suggest elevated parcels lifted near 1km AGL may become
buoyant, current thinking is lightning may prove too sparse within
this corridor to warrant a 10 percent thunder risk at this time.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/28/2022
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