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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, February 28, 2022

SPC Feb 28, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CST Sun Feb 27 2022 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern Florida into southeast Georgia. ...FL/GA... Notable mid-level short-wave trough within the southern stream is expected to dig southeast toward FL during the day as an 80kt 500mb speed max translates toward the southern Peninsula and weakens by early evening. This feature will maintain a weak surface low off the FL Atlantic Coast along with the primary surface boundary; hence, offshore flow is expected through the period. Even so, seasonally cold 500mb temperatures (minus 16-18) will spread across northern FL such that appreciable elevated buoyancy is expected to develop north of the digging speed max. NAM forecast sounding for DAB exhibits several hours of MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg if lifting a parcel near 900mb. It appears a few elevated thunderstorms will likely evolve ahead of the short wave where steep lapse rates and cooling mid-level temperatures are maximized. This activity should spread offshore by early evening. ...Pacific Northwest... Weak instability is expected to develop within the warm conveyor that will approach the OR/WA Coast later today. While forecast soundings suggest elevated parcels lifted near 1km AGL may become buoyant, current thinking is lightning may prove too sparse within this corridor to warrant a 10 percent thunder risk at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/28/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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