SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OK AND
NORTH TX...
...SUMMARY...
A couple tornadoes with scattered damaging winds and large hail will
be possible overnight into early morning across north Texas and
southern to eastern Oklahoma.
...OK and north TX...
Minimal change apparent for the overnight severe episode expected to
develop across western north TX and spread across south-central into
eastern OK by 12Z, with all severe hazards possible.
Low-level air mass modification will continue beneath an initially
stout elevated mixed-layer as sampled by regional 12Z soundings.
Boundary-layer dew points in the low to mid 60s have reached
south-central TX and will further advect towards the Red River
Valley by tonight. This moisture advection will occur in advance of
a lee cyclone that will develop east from the TX South Plains and
reach the south-central OK/north TX border area overnight,
downstream of a compact and vigorous mid-level shortwave trough that
will eject east from southwest AZ to the southern High Plains.
Large-scale ascent will increase substantially tonight with approach
of this wave overspreading the returning low-level moisture, near
and just east of the surface cyclone/triple point.
Between 03-06Z, thunderstorm development will be likely across
northwest TX and western OK, and convection will subsequently become
widespread as it moves east-northeast into central/eastern OK and
north/northeast TX through the end of the period, to the north of an
80-90 kt 500-mb jet evolving from the Trans-Pecos to north-central
TX. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures and very steep 700-500 mb
lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will contribute to warm-sector MLCAPE
reaching 500-1000 J/kg. The strongly forced ascent in addition to
some initial weakness in the hodograph around 700 mb should tend to
favor upscale growth into a linear cluster with embedded supercells.
The northern portion of the convective development in central OK
will likely be undercut by progression of the polar cold front.
While areas farther south will have the greatest opportunity to
produce a couple tornadoes and scattered strong to severe winds with
a few embedded supercells and bowing segments.
..Grams/Squitieri.. 02/16/2022
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