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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

SPC Feb 16, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OK AND NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes with scattered damaging winds and large hail will be possible overnight into early morning across north Texas and southern to eastern Oklahoma. ...OK and north TX... Minimal change apparent for the overnight severe episode expected to develop across western north TX and spread across south-central into eastern OK by 12Z, with all severe hazards possible. Low-level air mass modification will continue beneath an initially stout elevated mixed-layer as sampled by regional 12Z soundings. Boundary-layer dew points in the low to mid 60s have reached south-central TX and will further advect towards the Red River Valley by tonight. This moisture advection will occur in advance of a lee cyclone that will develop east from the TX South Plains and reach the south-central OK/north TX border area overnight, downstream of a compact and vigorous mid-level shortwave trough that will eject east from southwest AZ to the southern High Plains. Large-scale ascent will increase substantially tonight with approach of this wave overspreading the returning low-level moisture, near and just east of the surface cyclone/triple point. Between 03-06Z, thunderstorm development will be likely across northwest TX and western OK, and convection will subsequently become widespread as it moves east-northeast into central/eastern OK and north/northeast TX through the end of the period, to the north of an 80-90 kt 500-mb jet evolving from the Trans-Pecos to north-central TX. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures and very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will contribute to warm-sector MLCAPE reaching 500-1000 J/kg. The strongly forced ascent in addition to some initial weakness in the hodograph around 700 mb should tend to favor upscale growth into a linear cluster with embedded supercells. The northern portion of the convective development in central OK will likely be undercut by progression of the polar cold front. While areas farther south will have the greatest opportunity to produce a couple tornadoes and scattered strong to severe winds with a few embedded supercells and bowing segments. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 02/16/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC