SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AMENDED FOR NORTH AND WESTWARD SHIFT IN SEVERE POTENTIAL
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning from central Texas and western Oklahoma into portions of
Arkansas and northwest Louisiana.
...19z Day 3 Discussion -- Southern Plains Vicinity...
The Day 3/Wednesday convective outlook has been adjusted for
increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential further to
the north and west across parts of TX/OK. Over the last few cycles,
forecast guidance has trended toward the north/west with
thunderstorm development. A surface low is forecast to develop
eastward across the TX Panhandle into western OK Wednesday evening.
At 00z, a dryline is expected to extend south/southwest across
western OK into southwest TX, while a cold front extends from
northwest OK into southeast KS/northwest MO. Boundary-layer moisture
will be somewhat marginal (surface dewpoints in the 50s F) along the
surface boundaries, however steep midlevel lapse rates will support
MLCAPE values as high as 500-750 J/kg. Modestly warm temperatures
around 850 mb will likely maintain elevated convection, especially
given northeast storm motion and cells becoming undercut by the
south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Nevertheless, forecast
hodographs indicated enlarged low-level hodographs below 3 km, with
long, straight hodographs above 3 km, indicative of rotating storms
capable of severe hail. A low-level jet will increase during the
evening/overnight hours with strong winds indicated below 1 km,
which may aid in strong gusts despite the somewhat elevated nature
of convection.
Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of the Lower MS
Valley into central/eastern TX where weaker destabilization and
capping will limit severe potential through early Thursday morning.
...Previous Day 3 Discussion - Issued 217 am CST...
A strong southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress
through the Southwest on Wednesday, before then continuing
eastward/northeastward through the southern Plains Wednesday evening
through Thursday morning. A belt of moderate to strong mid-level
flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from northern Mexico
northeastward through the Mid MS Valley early Wednesday before
gradually shifting eastward ahead of the progressing shortwave.
Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over the southern High Plains
Wednesday afternoon, at the southwestern edge of a cold front
extending from the Mid MS Valley southwestward into northeastern NM.
Expectation is for this low to move eastward along the front as it
surges southward/southeastward. This should bring the low into
northwest TX late Wednesday evening, eastward along the Red River
late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, and northeastward to
the central OK/AR border by 12Z Thursday. Additionally, strong
moisture advection is anticipated throughout the day, likely
bringing 60s dewpoints into east TX ahead of the approaching surface
low and front. Mid 50s dewpoints will likely reach most of eastern
OK.
Thunderstorms will likely begin across western/central OK late
Wednesday evening, as the front moves into that region amid moderate
to strong low-level southerly flow. Steep mid-level lapse rates are
anticipated atop stable low levels and much of this initial activity
is expected to be elevated north of the front. Even so, steep lapse
rates and moderately strong mid-level flow could still result in
thunderstorms strong enough to produce isolated hail. Elevated
thunderstorm will likely persist throughout the remainder of the
period in the vicinity of the cold front as it moves southeastward.
Highest potential for surface-based storms is currently anticipated
from central TX northeastward into the Arklatex region from
Wednesday night through early Thursday morning. Storm coverage
remains in question due to warm mid-level temperatures and resultant
capping. However, strong low-level southerly winds will support
robust low-level vertical shear and storm-relative helicity, and
supercells are possible if updrafts can persist and mature.
..Leitman.. 02/14/2022
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