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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Monday, February 14, 2022

SPC Feb 14, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Mon Feb 14 2022 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AMENDED FOR NORTH AND WESTWARD SHIFT IN SEVERE POTENTIAL ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening into Thursday morning from central Texas and western Oklahoma into portions of Arkansas and northwest Louisiana. ...19z Day 3 Discussion -- Southern Plains Vicinity... The Day 3/Wednesday convective outlook has been adjusted for increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential further to the north and west across parts of TX/OK. Over the last few cycles, forecast guidance has trended toward the north/west with thunderstorm development. A surface low is forecast to develop eastward across the TX Panhandle into western OK Wednesday evening. At 00z, a dryline is expected to extend south/southwest across western OK into southwest TX, while a cold front extends from northwest OK into southeast KS/northwest MO. Boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat marginal (surface dewpoints in the 50s F) along the surface boundaries, however steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values as high as 500-750 J/kg. Modestly warm temperatures around 850 mb will likely maintain elevated convection, especially given northeast storm motion and cells becoming undercut by the south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Nevertheless, forecast hodographs indicated enlarged low-level hodographs below 3 km, with long, straight hodographs above 3 km, indicative of rotating storms capable of severe hail. A low-level jet will increase during the evening/overnight hours with strong winds indicated below 1 km, which may aid in strong gusts despite the somewhat elevated nature of convection. Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of the Lower MS Valley into central/eastern TX where weaker destabilization and capping will limit severe potential through early Thursday morning. ...Previous Day 3 Discussion - Issued 217 am CST... A strong southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress through the Southwest on Wednesday, before then continuing eastward/northeastward through the southern Plains Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. A belt of moderate to strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from northern Mexico northeastward through the Mid MS Valley early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward ahead of the progressing shortwave. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon, at the southwestern edge of a cold front extending from the Mid MS Valley southwestward into northeastern NM. Expectation is for this low to move eastward along the front as it surges southward/southeastward. This should bring the low into northwest TX late Wednesday evening, eastward along the Red River late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, and northeastward to the central OK/AR border by 12Z Thursday. Additionally, strong moisture advection is anticipated throughout the day, likely bringing 60s dewpoints into east TX ahead of the approaching surface low and front. Mid 50s dewpoints will likely reach most of eastern OK. Thunderstorms will likely begin across western/central OK late Wednesday evening, as the front moves into that region amid moderate to strong low-level southerly flow. Steep mid-level lapse rates are anticipated atop stable low levels and much of this initial activity is expected to be elevated north of the front. Even so, steep lapse rates and moderately strong mid-level flow could still result in thunderstorms strong enough to produce isolated hail. Elevated thunderstorm will likely persist throughout the remainder of the period in the vicinity of the cold front as it moves southeastward. Highest potential for surface-based storms is currently anticipated from central TX northeastward into the Arklatex region from Wednesday night through early Thursday morning. Storm coverage remains in question due to warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. However, strong low-level southerly winds will support robust low-level vertical shear and storm-relative helicity, and supercells are possible if updrafts can persist and mature. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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