SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Sat Jan 08 2022
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms will be possible today in the central
Gulf Coast states.
...Central Gulf Coast States...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains
today as flow remains from the west-southwest across much of the
southeastern U.S. A belt of strong low-level flow will move eastward
across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. The southern
edge of the stronger low-level flow will be in the lower Mississippi
Valley, where moisture advection will occur during the day. By early
afternoon, surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F across much of
Louisiana and Mississippi ahead of a cold front approaching from the
northwest. The front will focus convective development this
afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday and
move east-southeastward across Louisiana, central Mississippi and
central Alabama this afternoon. The airmass is forecast to be
moderately unstable ahead of the storms with MLCAPE peaking in the
1000 to 2000 J/kg range by late afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast
soundings from near Jackson, Mississippi eastward to Montgomery,
Alabama have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 kt range with some
directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for
supercell development with cells that remain discrete along and
ahead of the front. Rotating storms may produce isolated damaging
wind gusts and be accompanied by a marginal tornado threat.
However, there are a few limiting factors for today's scenario. the
first is that the low-level jet will move eastward away from the
region during the afternoon. The second is that large-scale ascent
will be limited. The third is that surface winds are forecast to
gradually veer ahead of the front. For these reasons, any severe
threat is expected to remain marginal and localized.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/09/2022
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