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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, January 9, 2022

SPC Jan 9, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Jan 08 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms will be possible today in the central Gulf Coast states. ...Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains today as flow remains from the west-southwest across much of the southeastern U.S. A belt of strong low-level flow will move eastward across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. The southern edge of the stronger low-level flow will be in the lower Mississippi Valley, where moisture advection will occur during the day. By early afternoon, surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F across much of Louisiana and Mississippi ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. The front will focus convective development this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday and move east-southeastward across Louisiana, central Mississippi and central Alabama this afternoon. The airmass is forecast to be moderately unstable ahead of the storms with MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by late afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings from near Jackson, Mississippi eastward to Montgomery, Alabama have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 kt range with some directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for supercell development with cells that remain discrete along and ahead of the front. Rotating storms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts and be accompanied by a marginal tornado threat. However, there are a few limiting factors for today's scenario. the first is that the low-level jet will move eastward away from the region during the afternoon. The second is that large-scale ascent will be limited. The third is that surface winds are forecast to gradually veer ahead of the front. For these reasons, any severe threat is expected to remain marginal and localized. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/09/2022 Read more LIVE:
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