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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, January 8, 2022

SPC Jan 8, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Jan 08 2022 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...ARKANSAS...AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts, marginally severe hail, and a tornado or two remain possible today across southeast Texas, and the hail threat will spread into Arkansas tonight. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was to trim the western extent of severe probabilities and the general thunder area across east TX. Additional convection appears unlikely through tonight to the west of the ongoing activity. The cluster of storms near the southeast TX Coast should have access to the best low-level moisture in the short term, with upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE present across this region. Fairly modest low/mid-level lapse rates may continue to hinder more robust updrafts through the rest of the afternoon. Still, enough low/deep-layer shear is present for modest storm organization, with occasional weak low-level rotation noted from the KHGX radar with a couple of cells embedded within the larger cluster. A brief tornado, strong/damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will remain a possibility with storms across east TX and vicinity through this evening. ..Gleason.. 01/08/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sat Jan 08 2022/ ...TX/LA/AR... Morning water vapor loop shows general mid-level ridging over the southern states, but multiple embedded small-scale shortwave troughs. One feature is moving eastward across north TX at this time, and will help to maintain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon over east TX into AR/LA. Another feature will approach east TX later tonight, providing another round of precipitation. With both periods of thunderstorm potential, there is some risk of severe weather. Forecast soundings near and northwest of HOU show sufficient veering/increasing winds with height to pose a concern for supercell structures and the potential for an isolated tornado or damaging wind gust. This is especially true along a weak warm front that will lift northward across the area, bringing near 70F dewpoints farther inland. The consensus of 12z CAM guidance suggests that updrafts will struggle to intensify, and UH tracks are forecast to be rather weak. Therefore will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk, but will closely monitor the area for signs of greater intensification through the period. Read more LIVE: