SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sat Jan 08 2022
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS...ARKANSAS...AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts, marginally severe hail, and a tornado or
two remain possible today across southeast Texas, and the hail
threat will spread into Arkansas tonight.
...20Z Update...
The only change with this update was to trim the western extent of
severe probabilities and the general thunder area across east TX.
Additional convection appears unlikely through tonight to the west
of the ongoing activity. The cluster of storms near the southeast TX
Coast should have access to the best low-level moisture in the short
term, with upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE present across this
region. Fairly modest low/mid-level lapse rates may continue to
hinder more robust updrafts through the rest of the afternoon.
Still, enough low/deep-layer shear is present for modest storm
organization, with occasional weak low-level rotation noted from the
KHGX radar with a couple of cells embedded within the larger
cluster. A brief tornado, strong/damaging winds, and marginally
severe hail will remain a possibility with storms across east TX and
vicinity through this evening.
..Gleason.. 01/08/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sat Jan 08 2022/
...TX/LA/AR...
Morning water vapor loop shows general mid-level ridging over the
southern states, but multiple embedded small-scale shortwave
troughs. One feature is moving eastward across north TX at this
time, and will help to maintain scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon over east TX into AR/LA. Another
feature will approach east TX later tonight, providing another round
of precipitation.
With both periods of thunderstorm potential, there is some risk of
severe weather. Forecast soundings near and northwest of HOU show
sufficient veering/increasing winds with height to pose a concern
for supercell structures and the potential for an isolated tornado
or damaging wind gust. This is especially true along a weak warm
front that will lift northward across the area, bringing near 70F
dewpoints farther inland. The consensus of 12z CAM guidance
suggests that updrafts will struggle to intensify, and UH tracks are
forecast to be rather weak. Therefore will maintain the ongoing
MRGL risk, but will closely monitor the area for signs of greater
intensification through the period.
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