Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CST Thu Jan 27 2022
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Most recent medium-range guidance remains in agreement with previous
runs that a southern-stream shortwave trough will traverse the
Southwest States on D4/Sunday before continuing
eastward/southeastward into the southern Plains on D5/Monday and
Gulf of Mexico on D6/Tuesday. Moisture return ahead of this system
will be limited to the TX Coastal Plain, where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible on D5/Monday. Vertical shear will be
modest but still strong enough for a few robust updrafts with
attendant isolated severe potential.
In the wake of this lead wave, a very strong shortwave is expected
to drop across the western CONUS late D6/Tuesday through
D7/Wednesday. Forecast progression of this shortwave has slowed in
the 00Z runs of all the guidance, which had shown fairly good
consistency within the last several runs. Additionally, the newer
guidance is less amplified, with the stronger forcing for ascent
staying behind the front. Thunderstorms are still anticipated in the
vicinity of the front, but this potential displacement of the
stronger large-scale forcing for ascent from the front and low-level
moisture may result in a largely elevated/anafrontal characteristic
to the convection. All of these factors cast doubt towards the
overall severe potential and coverage across central/east TX into
the Lower MS Valley on D7/Wednesday or farther east over the
Mid-South, TN Valley, and Southeast on D8/Thursday. This uncertainty
precludes the delineation of any severe areas with this outlook.
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