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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, January 27, 2022

SPC Jan 27, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Thu Jan 27 2022 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Most recent medium-range guidance remains in agreement with previous runs that a southern-stream shortwave trough will traverse the Southwest States on D4/Sunday before continuing eastward/southeastward into the southern Plains on D5/Monday and Gulf of Mexico on D6/Tuesday. Moisture return ahead of this system will be limited to the TX Coastal Plain, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible on D5/Monday. Vertical shear will be modest but still strong enough for a few robust updrafts with attendant isolated severe potential. In the wake of this lead wave, a very strong shortwave is expected to drop across the western CONUS late D6/Tuesday through D7/Wednesday. Forecast progression of this shortwave has slowed in the 00Z runs of all the guidance, which had shown fairly good consistency within the last several runs. Additionally, the newer guidance is less amplified, with the stronger forcing for ascent staying behind the front. Thunderstorms are still anticipated in the vicinity of the front, but this potential displacement of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent from the front and low-level moisture may result in a largely elevated/anafrontal characteristic to the convection. All of these factors cast doubt towards the overall severe potential and coverage across central/east TX into the Lower MS Valley on D7/Wednesday or farther east over the Mid-South, TN Valley, and Southeast on D8/Thursday. This uncertainty precludes the delineation of any severe areas with this outlook. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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