SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Wed Jan 26 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An amplified upper pattern is expected to cover the CONUS early
Friday morning, with a strong upper ridge centered over the Great
Basin and a deep upper trough extending from the Upper Great Lakes
back into northwest Mexico. Some dampening of the upper riding is
anticipated throughout the day as a low-amplitude shortwave trough
moves through its northern periphery and a deep shortwave trough
approaches the West Coast. Farther east, a strong shortwave trough
embedded within the larger upper troughing forecast to progress
eastward while deepening/maturing. By early Saturday this shortwave
will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic, with strong mid-level flow
extending throughout its base from the Southeast off the Southeast
coast.
Strong forcing for ascent will accompany this shortwave trough as it
moves across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast/FL.
However, predominantly offshore low-level trajectories will prevent
moisture return ahead of this shortwave, precluding the buoyancy
needed for thunderstorm development.
Some modest low-level moisture may be in place across central and
southern FL, and isolated thunderstorms may occur across
east-central/southeast FL coast as a surface low develops offshore.
However, uncertainty regarding frontal timing and very limited
buoyancy are expected to keep thunderstorm coverage less than 10
percent. A flash or two is also possible within the warm air
advection across the coastal NC/Outer Banks, but coverage here is
also expected to be less than 10 percent.
..Mosier.. 01/26/2022
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SHqsk7
