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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, January 26, 2022

SPC Jan 26, 2022 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Wed Jan 26 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplified upper pattern is expected to cover the CONUS early Friday morning, with a strong upper ridge centered over the Great Basin and a deep upper trough extending from the Upper Great Lakes back into northwest Mexico. Some dampening of the upper riding is anticipated throughout the day as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through its northern periphery and a deep shortwave trough approaches the West Coast. Farther east, a strong shortwave trough embedded within the larger upper troughing forecast to progress eastward while deepening/maturing. By early Saturday this shortwave will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic, with strong mid-level flow extending throughout its base from the Southeast off the Southeast coast. Strong forcing for ascent will accompany this shortwave trough as it moves across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast/FL. However, predominantly offshore low-level trajectories will prevent moisture return ahead of this shortwave, precluding the buoyancy needed for thunderstorm development. Some modest low-level moisture may be in place across central and southern FL, and isolated thunderstorms may occur across east-central/southeast FL coast as a surface low develops offshore. However, uncertainty regarding frontal timing and very limited buoyancy are expected to keep thunderstorm coverage less than 10 percent. A flash or two is also possible within the warm air advection across the coastal NC/Outer Banks, but coverage here is also expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Mosier.. 01/26/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC