SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into
southwest Louisiana through tonight.
...Northwest Gulf coast through tonight...
Only minor adjustments to the outlook area. Surface cyclogenesis is
underway along a baroclinic zone near the middle TX coast, and this
cyclone will progress eastward across the northwest/north central
Gulf of Mexico in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough now over
west TX. Modifying surface warm sector will remain offshore, which
will preclude any threat for severe storms inland. Elevated
convection will produce occasional lightning flashes in the zone of
warm advection/ascent preceding the midlevel trough, based on weak
buoyancy and 7-7.5 C/km lapse rates in roughly the 700-500 mb layer.
The threat for thunderstorms will spread eastward across southeast
TX today and persist into southwest LA through tonight.
..Thompson.. 01/24/2022
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