SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible across southeast Arizona
and southwest New Mexico today.
No changes were made to the previous outlook.
..Jewell.. 01/23/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022/
...AZ/NM/TX through tonight...
A closed midlevel low will move slowly eastward from Sonora/southern
AZ to far west TX by Monday morning. Cold midlevel temperatures
with association steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy will support
the potential for isolated thunderstorms, aided this afternoon by
surface heating/mixing. Some elevated convection (rooted near 700
mb) may occur farther east in TX overnight, in the zone of ascent
preceding the midlevel trough. However, buoyancy will be limited,
and it is not clear that cloud depth will be sufficient for
lightning production.
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