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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Tuesday, January 11, 2022

SPC Jan 11, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Tue Jan 11 2022 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in reasonable agreement that the weather pattern will feature upper trough amplifications from the Plains into the eastern CONUS, with a mean upper ridge over the West, through Tuesday/D8. Offshore flow across the southeastern states on Friday/D4 will maintain stable conditions as an upper trough departs the East Coast. Meanwhile, another stronger upper trough will dive southeastward into the Plains Friday night, then across the lower MS valley and northern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday/D5. While a weak surface low may develop close to northern Gulf Coast, recent model trends suggest very little instability over land due to the cool boundary layer. As the shortwave trough continues east on Sunday/D6 across FL and GA, dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s F are forecast ahead of a surging cold front. As a result, MUCAPE values may struggle to reach 100 J/kg. Yet another upper trough is forecast to develop over much of the East on Monday/D7, with little chance of low-level moisture return due to offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and across the East Coast. As such, severe weather is unlikely. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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