Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CST Tue Jan 11 2022
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Models are in reasonable agreement that the weather pattern will
feature upper trough amplifications from the Plains into the eastern
CONUS, with a mean upper ridge over the West, through Tuesday/D8.
Offshore flow across the southeastern states on Friday/D4 will
maintain stable conditions as an upper trough departs the East
Coast. Meanwhile, another stronger upper trough will dive
southeastward into the Plains Friday night, then across the lower MS
valley and northern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday/D5. While a weak
surface low may develop close to northern Gulf Coast, recent model
trends suggest very little instability over land due to the cool
boundary layer.
As the shortwave trough continues east on Sunday/D6 across FL and
GA, dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s F are forecast ahead of a
surging cold front. As a result, MUCAPE values may struggle to reach
100 J/kg.
Yet another upper trough is forecast to develop over much of the
East on Monday/D7, with little chance of low-level moisture return
due to offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and across the East
Coast. As such, severe weather is unlikely.
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