SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Fri Dec 03 2021 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the Arklatex to the northern Gulf States. ...Arklatex to northern Gulf States... Weak short-wave trough over northeast TX is forecast to advance slowly across the lower MS Valley later today before ejecting into the central Gulf States overnight. In its wake, broad short-wave ridging is forecast across TX ahead of the Baja Peninsula upper trough. This flow regime will result in moist warm sector holding across much of eastern TX/lower MS Valley. With the weak short-wave trough forecast to advance across the lower MS Valley, low-level flow will veer a bit and deep-layer flow is forecast to actually be seasonally weak, though cool at mid levels. While large-scale forcing for ascent is not expected to contribute appreciably, weak low-level warm advection should be the primary forcing mechanism for elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb across the Arklatex could yield MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. However, effective shear will be weak and NAM sounding at PRX around 20Z suggests only 10kt at 500 mb. While some elevated convection is expected across this region, weak shear and short-wave ridging will not prove particularly favorable for large hail. Cool mid-level temperatures may contribute to small hail in the strongest updrafts, but the probability for severe appears too low to warrant a risk this period. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/04/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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