SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Fri Dec 03 2021 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Saturday. ...South-central states... A series of weak mid/upper shortwave impulses will migrate eastward across the southern Plains and the lower MS Valley/Southeast vicinity on Saturday. At the surface, a weak low will drift east across OK/north TX. A dryline will extend south/southwest from the low into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Ozark Plateau and TN Valley vicinity as surface high pressure shifts east from the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Boundary-layer moisture will increase on southerly low-level flow across much of eastern TX into eastern OK, the Ozarks and lower MS Valley. However, a warm layer around 1-2 km will preclude surface-based convective potential. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in weak destabilization and isolated thunderstorms are possible. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will remain weak ahead of the upper shortwave trough, with effective shear magnitudes expected to remain less than 25 kt. This should limit potential for organized severe thunderstorms amid elevated convection. ..Leitman.. 12/03/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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