SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Mon Nov 08 2021 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of the southern Plains. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards with these storms. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale mid/upper trough will shift eastward across the Plains on Wednesday. As this occurs, a weak surface low will develop over the TX Panhandle and shift east into Oklahoma and then northeast into the mid-MS Valley. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest Gulf moisture northward ahead of the low and a southeastward-advancing cold front. Upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are forecast across northern TX into much of OK. Some uncertainty exists with regards to the northward extent of better quality boundary-layer moisture and the exact position of the surface low/cold front as forecast guidance all depict a slightly different scenario. Nevertheless, at least weak instability (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and favorable vertical shear will overlap to support a few strong to severe storms across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday afternoon into early evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates and vertically veering wind profiles will support a threat for hail in any more discrete convection. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts will be possible in clusters/line segments along the front. While some tornado threat could develop given somewhat favorable low-level hodographs, overall threat appears low at this time given weak low-level instability and a rather cool boundary-layer. ..Leitman.. 11/08/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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