Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output indicates that a substantially more amplified/blocked regime may evolve across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into southwestern portions of North America, including a large-scale trough and/or developing closed low near Baja early next week. However, there might not be significant change to the northern mid-latitude westerlies, with strong flow persisting through much of the period in a broadly anticyclonic belt across the eastern Pacific into the northern U.S. Great Plains, before transitioning to broadly cyclonic east of the Mississippi Valley. Although a couple of strengthening short wave perturbations progressing through this regime might be accompanied by thunderstorm development across parts of the south central U.S., it appears that trailing reinforcing intrusions of cool and/or dry air will preclude deep boundary-layer moistening over much of the Gulf of Mexico. This seems likely to continue to negate, or at least temper, the risk for severe weather. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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