SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 29 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Although one significant short wave trough accelerating inland across the British Columbia coast may suppress its amplitude, strong flow is forecast to persist in a broadly anticyclonic belt across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific through the northern U.S. Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley during this period. It appears that the leading edge of this jet will continue to gradually nose into the base of broad downstream troughing, with one strengthening embedded mid-level perturbation digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the upper Great Lakes region, accompanied by a modestly deep surface cyclone. At the same time, though, potentially cool surface ridging appears likely to be maintained across much of the Gulf Coast and Gulf of Mexico vicinity, beneath a persistent confluent regime to the west/southwest of the Eastern mid/upper troughing. This will continue to inhibit boundary-layer moistening over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and preclude a substantive inland return flow of moisture. Various model forecast soundings, and other output, do suggest that mid-level moistening and lift, driven by warm advection in advance of the digging short wave impulse, will develop across and east-southeast of the lower Ohio Valley, through the Cumberland Plateau and adjacent portions of the Appalachians Wednesday afternoon and evening. It appears that this may contribute to very weak destabilization supportive of convective development, but it remains unclear whether thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to charge separation supportive of lightning. In lower latitudes, (to the south of the mid-level ridging) broad weak mid/upper troughing, with a number of embedded perturbations, will also linger across the subtropical eastern Pacific into northern Mexico. Models suggest that moistening and destabilization along the Sierra Madre Occidental into the northern Mexican plateau region will become supportive of scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, it currently appears that any appreciable risk for thunderstorms will remain well south and west of the international border. ..Kerr.. 11/30/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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