SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 24 2021 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the Texas Hill Country/south Texas across the Arklatex and into Mississippi Delta region today. Severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper trough will shift eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys today, reaching the Lower Lakes and Appalachians by Friday morning. Meanwhile, a low over northern Baja/the Bay of California is progged to become increasingly cut off from the westerlies, and retrograde slowly southwestward through the period. At the surface, a cold front -- accompanying the progressive upper trough -- should extend from lower Michigan to the Texas Coastal Plain early. The front will move steadily eastward/southeastward, crossing the Ohio/Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys through the afternoon and evening, and then across the Appalachians and into the East Coast states late. Shower activity will accompany the front, with the greatest potential for thunderstorms from western Tennessee/Arkansas southwestward. Early in the period, a weakly rotating cell or two will be possible, within the zone of pre-frontal warm advection where low-level veering of the wind field will be present. Severe weather appears unlikely however, especially beyond mid morning as low-level flow relaxes/veers. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Karstens.. 11/25/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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