Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CST Sun Nov 21 2021 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that expansive upper troughing will be in place across the western and central CONUS early D4/Wednesday. Several shortwave troughs are forecast to move within this parent upper trough as it gradually moves eastward. Guidance has trended towards a more split-flow solution, with a more progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern stream across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Thursday. At the same time, a closed cyclone is forecast to develop off the coast of the Baja Peninsula. A surface low associated with the progressive northern-stream shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of it while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across much of the Plains on D4/Wednesday and through the remainder of the southern Plains and the MS and OH Valleys on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this front as it moves across OK and TX, modest buoyancy and displacement south/east of the stronger flow should limit severe-storm chances. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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