SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing marginally severe hail and gusty winds may affect parts of Arkansas, northern Louisiana and vicinity this afternoon into the early evening. ...20Z Update... A Marginal Risk for hail/wind has been added across parts of AR, northern LA, and vicinity. With strong mid-level westerlies and related deep-layer shear noted on recent VWPs from KLZK/KNQA, storms capable of producing marginally severe hail and gusty winds may occur through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening across this region ahead of a cold front. The rather limited thermodynamic environment is still expected to generally inhibit a greater risk for organized severe storms. See Mesoscale Discussion 1948 for more details on the short-term severe threat for this area. ..Gleason.. 11/21/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Sun Nov 21 2021/ ...Portions of Arkansas/ArkLaMiss... Coincident with a broadly cyclonic upper-level flow regime, thunderstorms should increase in coverage through the afternoon near and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A couple of stronger storms could materialize mainly late this afternoon/early evening with the possibility of small hail and/or gusty winds. However, persistent cloud cover and related weak lapse rates and minimal buoyancy (only a few hundred J/kg CAPE) are expected to limit the potential for organized/sustained severe storms. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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