SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM ROUGHLY THE NYC AREA INTO PARTS OF CT...RI...AND MA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered damaging winds, a brief tornado, and small to marginally severe hail are possible across the southeast New York and New York City vicinity into southern New England from about 1 to 6 PM EST. ...NYC to southern New England... Water vapor imagery and model guidance show an intense mid-level speed max exceeding 95kt at 500mb rotating across the Mid-Atlantic region today. This feature is sampled by the LWX VAD, and is forecast to track off the NJ/Long Island coast by mid afternoon. The left-exit region of this jet will result in strong large scale forcing for ascent and cyclogenesis over Long Island/CT today, with southerly low-level winds strengthening in the warm sector of the low. Surface dewpoints will struggle to climb beyond 55F, but very cold mid-level temperatures (at-or-below -20C at 500mb) and full sunshine over region will result in steep lapse rates and a brief period of sufficient MLCAPE for vigorous convection. Current indications from CAM ensembles suggest that storms will form around 18z over northern NJ/southeast NY and track east-northeastward into parts of CT/MA/RI. Strengthening winds just above the surface, coupled with steep low-level lapse rates support a risk of damaging wind gusts as the main threat with the strongest cores. There will also be some risk of hail and an isolated brief tornado or two. The size of the area of concern, coupled with limited low-level moisture, result in considerable uncertainty whether storms will have time to organize to severe limits before they move out of the most favorable environment. The activity should move off the coast of eastern MA by 00z, ending the threat. ..Hart/Bentley.. 11/13/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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