SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ON THE CT VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered damaging winds, a brief tornado, and small to marginally severe hail are possible across the southeast New York and New York City vicinity across southern New England from about 1 to 6 PM EST. ...Northeast... A potent shortwave trough over the Upper OH Valley will accelerate as it ejects into New England through this evening. Attendant cyclogenesis is expected across the Lower Hudson Valley into Downeast ME. While surface dew points are low across the region at present (generally 30s to low 40s), just-in-time moisture return is anticipated as upper 40s to low 50s along immediate coastal NJ are advected north. This should be sufficient, amid both steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, to generate meager surface-based buoyancy ahead of the deepening surface cyclone. Wind profiles will be conducive to discrete supercell potential with an enlarged low-level hodograph and a highly elongated mid-level hodograph. While convection will remain low-topped, the strong forcing for ascent and favorable lapse rate/shear profiles render increased concern for an arc of organized, fast-moving showers and thunderstorms centered on CT and vicinity during the late afternoon. This window should be relatively short-lived as convection likely outpaces the confined plume of surface-based instability before spreading off the MA coast. Damaging winds from strong to locally severe gusts should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and marginal hail are also possible. ..Grams/Broyles.. 11/13/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
http://dlvr.it/SCRsn9
