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Wednesday, November 10, 2021

SPC Nov 10, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/NORTH TX AS WELL AS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Kansas, southeast Nebraska, northwest Missouri, and southwest Iowa, as well as central/eastern Oklahoma into north Texas, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are possible. ...OK/TX/AR/LA... Wind profiles and the orientation of the front appear favorable for supercell development this evening, especially across parts of Oklahoma and possibly nearby North Texas. Strong boundary-layer heating will occur across western North Texas where surface temperatures should warm into the low 80s F. Downstream of this low-level warm nose, the greatest buoyancy is expected to be centered on south-central Oklahoma where MLCAPE should approach 1500 J/kg by early evening. Increasing convergence along the sharpening front should yield late afternoon thunderstorm development in northern Oklahoma, spreading south through the evening along the I-35 corridor into north Texas. Very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates owing to a combination of an elevated mixed-layer and cool mid-level temperatures within the trough will support a risk for significant severe hail with initial discrete supercells. Sufficient hodograph curvature should also exist for a tornado threat as well, particularly in the 00-03Z time frame. An increasingly linear convective mode is likely to evolve across eastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas tonight. This linear MCS will likely spread southeastward into parts of western Arkansas/northwest Louisiana, but weaker surface-based instability coupled with stronger forcing for ascent shifting away from the region suggests the wind/tornado threat should gradually diminish overnight. ...Eastern KS/southeast NE/northwest MO/southwest IA... Have introduced a categorical Slight Risk for the region, with at least isolated severe thunderstorms expected by early/mid-afternoon, initially across eastern Kansas and far southeast Nebraska. Large-scale ascent tied to the more northern of the shortwave impulses will support such an increase in thunderstorms near the cold front/surface low. Although cloud cover may tend to linger, upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is plausible within the warm sector. A few semi-discrete supercells may initially occur, but a relatively quick upscale quasi-linear growth is otherwise anticipated as storms quickly spread toward northwest Missouri/southwest Iowa. ..Guyer/Hart.. 11/10/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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