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Wednesday, November 10, 2021

SPC Nov 10, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK INTO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across central to eastern Oklahoma into north Texas, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. A couple supercells may become intense and be capable of producing tornadoes and golf to tennis ball-sized hail. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough centered on the High Plains will shift east towards the MS Valley through early Wed. Embedded shortwave impulses will aid in increasingly widespread thunderstorm development late afternoon into this evening as surface cyclogenesis occurs along a sharpening frontal zone. ...OK/TX/AR/LA... Wind profiles and the orientation of the front appear favorable for supercell development this evening. Strong boundary-layer heating will occur across western North Texas where surface temperatures should warm into the low 80s. Downstream of this low-level warm nose, the greatest buoyancy is expected to be centered on south-central OK where MLCAPE should approach 1500 J/kg by early evening. Increasing convergence along the sharpening front should yield initial late afternoon thunderstorm development in northern OK, spreading south through the evening along the I-35 corridor into north TX. Very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates owing to a combination of an elevated mixed-layer and cool mid-level temperatures within the trough will support a risk for significant severe hail with initial discrete supercells. Sufficient hodograph curvature should also exist for a tornado threat as well, particularly in the 00-03Z time frame. An increasingly linear convective mode is likely to evolve across eastern OK into northeast TX tonight. This linear MCS will probably spread into parts of western AR/northwest LA but weaker surface-based instability coupled with stronger forcing for ascent shifting away from the region suggests the wind/tornado threat should diminish overnight. ...KS/MO/IA... Large-scale ascent tied to the more northern of the shortwave impulses will support mid to late afternoon thunderstorms, initiating across eastern KS along the northern periphery of surface-based instability. This destabilization corridor is expected to be confined with northern and eastern extent after sunset, despite deepening of the primary surface cyclone from eastern KS into the Upper MS Valley. Stronger low-level flow should also largely be displaced east and south during peak convective intensity in the early evening. As such, the overall setup appears to favor a predominately marginal type severe threat for all hazards within a cluster to line segment convective mode. ..Grams/Broyles.. 11/10/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov